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My 2004 Projected Election Results
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10/26/04 11:35 AM EST
posted by alex email |
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I posted this on my fraternity message board, but I put a decent amount of time into it, so I wanted to see yous guyses thoughts on it.
Here is what I see happening in the election on Nov 2nd.
Currently Bush has 208 Votes locked up and Kerry has 179. There are still 151 up in the air and any candidate needs 270 to win. The key comes down to the most talked about "Battleground States." Of the up for grabs states, as I see it, Kerry will win NH (4 votes) and ME (also 4 votes). That will put Kerry up to 187 votes. Bush will easily take WV (5 votes), IA (7 votes), CO (9 votes), NM (5 votes), OR (7 votes), as well as NV (5 votes), bringing his total to 246. Then it will come down to:
MI 17 votes
OH 20 votes
PA 21 votes
FL 27 votes
MN 10 votes
WI 10 votes
These will all obviously be very closely contested and as I see it happening:
Bush will take both MN and WI to bring his total to 266.
But Kerry will take MI, OH, and PA, bringing his total to 245.
So, once again, it will come down to FL. I am calling that Kerry will get the geriatric swing vote from the state and will narrowly eek out a victory with 49% of the FL vote, taking its 27 votes and bringing his total to 272, winning the 04 election and taking his party hopping wife to the White House, thus derailing Hillary's 08 Presidential Dreams.
Thoughts? |
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Bush takes Ohio and Florida, Kerry take MI, PA, MN & WI; Assuming your numbers are right, that gives this final tally:
Bush: 293
Kerry: 245
So Bush wins the US election and our electoral votes, but we still have to tally the remaining countries. Even if you assume that NASCAR Dads in Bolivia (4) and Security Moms in Chechnya (3) will go Bush while the Cheese Eating Monkeys of Old Europe will go Kerry (10), it's gonna be a tight race... |
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| Have you factored in the states that are potentially splitting their electorals? |
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| Does anyone know of a good Election simulator? Like a big Flash map of the United States that allows you to pick a state and say "Kerry" to see how the electoral picture shapes up. That would be super-handy. |
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And as long as we're on wild goose chases, does anyone know where I can find the executable for "Shadow President?" It was a presidential sim for the PC from the early '90s that I used to absolutely love. The player acted as president and had to deal with world crises, build the GDP, etc. I think I always ended up getting frustrated and just launching military strikes against all the nuisance countries, starting with the "Saudi Neutral Zone", a teeny, undefended patch of land between Saudi Arabia & Iraq that I used as a launching pad for my campaigns.
And the "CD Key" for the game was historical quote trivia. So basically if you knew history fairly well you didn't need the key. Thanks to that game, I learned that "We need a revolution of the mind" is a famous Gorbachev quote. Just like "a baloo is a bear" and "wuzzle means 'to mix'" was drilled into my head by the CAT tests, I'll never forget that seemingly forgettable quote. |
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| Well, here is The First of your requests. Not sure about the other. Click on the Presidential Calculator option on the left flash nav. |
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Topping the list of things I never thought I'd see on ShinyDonkey.com:
Hooray for the New York Times!!! That is exactly what I was looking for. |
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My Prediction:
Bush 274
Kerry 264
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As for the second request, I don't have info on it, but check out:
http://www.politicalmachine.com/
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Shadow President review & zip file available here:
http://www.the-underdogs.org/game.php?id=963
I'm not sure if the zip actually runs the game, but we shall see... |
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Shadow President update (because I know this is what people want to read about):
I played my first game last night and it was everything I remembered it to be -- even after 12 years, it holds up well. The game was released in 1992 but the gameplay intentionally starts earlier on June 1, 1990. The Soviet Union is still around, Iraq hasn't yet invaded Kuwait, the European Alliance is still relevant, etc.
Anyway, I started my term by strengthening economic ties and increasing trade with Mexico, India, etc. when Iraq suddenly invaded Kuwait. I rushed to defend Kuwait but didn't really have the manpower in the region to stage a full defense, so I also attacked Iraq from Turkey, where I had a few hundred thousand troops. After about 3 weeks, Iraq surrendered in Kuwait AND the next day they surrendered Iraq, too. I was dreading a long occupation... and that's when the world went insane.
The Soviet Union, apparently deciding they didn't like what I was up to in the Middle East, NUKED Iraq the day I declared victory, killing 500,000 American soldiers and millions of Iraqis. I was stunned. Before I could plan a retaliation, China either decided to stick up for me or to just go crazy and they nuked the Soviets!!!
I decided the whole region had gone insane, so I installed a new govt. in Iraq (that only takes one day in video game world) and began withdrawing my few remaining troops. The new Democracy in Iraq was very spiteful (considering the massive illness and death from the Soviets' strike) so as soon as I left they tried to assassinate the Soviet premier. Their attempt failed, so I sent an assassin, too, which also failed.
About a week later, after I'd imposed economic blockades against the Soviets and Chinese, the USSR nuked the US, killing 250,000. This triggered an auto-nuclear-response (mutually assured destruction, I guess) which obliterated the Soviets. Their population went down to about 60,000 and the whole country was a wasteland.
So you may be wondering -- how did global nuclear war & covert ops affect my political career? My popularity rose from 48% to 86%... What a game... |
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